We believe that the market underestimated the impact of the Japanese nuclear pollution incident on the competition pattern of China’s beauty industry. (1) According to the sea discharge plan announced by the Japanese government, the nuclear polluted water will be discharged into the sea for at least 30 years, with strong persistence and repetitiveness. Every time the sea discharge is started every year, it may cause a new round of concern, and events such as pollution caused by sea discharge may cause staged public opinion. ② This incident has caused a great impact on Japanese cosmetics in brand, product, channel and marketing dimensions. Based on the leading operation precision of new domestic channels and continuous breakthrough in product strength, we believe that Chinese cosmetics is expected to make up for its position quickly and continue to expand its market share in the medium and long term. (3) Japanese cosmetics account for a relatively high proportion in sunscreen, cleansing and suits, and the price band is positioned at the high end, so the above areas have great substitution opportunities. Pay attention to the sunscreen track with large space for daily makeup replacement and strong growth potential, and the skin care track with large space for daily makeup replacement; Pay attention to the upstream raw material industry chain with continuous technological breakthrough and upgrading.
▍The discharge of nuclear pollution water into the sea has caused negative public opinion, and Japanese cosmetics products, channels and brands are under pressure in many aspects.
The Japanese government launched the Fukushima nuclear pollution water discharge plan from August 24, 2023, which will last for at least 30 years. The related events have caused a lot of negative public opinions. The Japanese makeup lies in: 1) brand dimension: consumer aversion caused by national sentiment+brand quality reputation double blow; 2) Product dimension: safety causes consumers’ concerns; 3) Channels and marketing: KOL cooperation in new channels is negatively affected. Under the pressure of many sides, the sales of Japanese cosmetics fell after the incident of discharging the sea.
▍It is estimated that there will be more than 7 billion alternative spaces, and there will be great opportunities in the middle and high-end positioning, sun protection and skin care products.
It is estimated that Japanese cosmetics will give over 7 billion market share in two years:Based on the assumption that the negative impact of the nuclear pollution incident continues, with reference to the sharp drop of 21% in Japanese cosmetics imports from January to November 2023 and the general drop of 15% in Japanese Top brand sales in 2023, we estimate that the market size of Japanese brands will drop by about 15% in 2023, giving up about 5.2 billion yuan. In terms of the Japanese market scale in 2024, we made three scenarios based on the import data, the sales data of Japanese brands after the cooperation of Daren, and Shiseido’s statement at the 3Q23 performance meeting. It is estimated that the total market space of Japanese cosmetics in 2023~24E will be 5.8-10.5 billion yuan, and the neutral hypothesis is expected to be about 7.5 billion yuan.
There are great opportunities for mid-to high-end positioning, sun protection and skin care products:Referring to the main Japanese brands covering the middle and high price bands, and according to Euromonitor data, the sales scale of high-end Japanese brands is about 24.2 billion yuan, accounting for 70%. We judge that the market share given by Japanese brands is relatively high-end, and the brands in the upgraded price band have hope to undertake it. With reference to the market scale of Japanese cosmetics, 64% is for skin care, 11% is for make-up and 10% is for sun protection, which respectively account for 9%/7%/23% of the market scale of skin care, make-up and sun protection in China. Considering that the makeup category mostly adopts OEM mode, the impact is relatively light, we think that sun protection and skin care track are more likely to be replaced. Further subdividing the skin care market, we find that Japanese brands account for the sub-category of cleansing and facial care suits.
▍National makeup opportunities: the sun protection track has a high growth and superimposed daily makeup replacement opportunities, and the skin care track has a selection of cleansing and suit segmentation.
1) High growth of sunscreen track+replacement of daily makeup, and the national makeup leader will benefit first under the management of special certificate.According to Euromonitor, the sunscreen track is a traditional advantage category of Japanese makeup, with a Japanese market share of 24%; In the first big promotion after the nuclear waste water incident, the market share of Japanese sunscreen amoy declined by 10%, and that of Tik Tok declined by 4%. The penetration rate of sunscreen cosmetics in China is low. According to NMPA standard, the penetration rate of women who normally use sunscreen products in the peak season of sunscreen is only about 16%. In the field of children’s sun protection in the cultivation period, a series of sun protection products with sales exceeding 400 million yuan have also appeared, and there is sufficient room for development. In addition, because sunscreen products are under special license management, the registration period needs 9-15 months, and we judge that the national makeup faucet that lays out the sunscreen track in advance is expected to benefit first.
2) The skin care track is a must, paying attention to the cleansing and suit subdivision with large replacement space.According to the data of the blast furnace, Japanese brands account for 51% of the Top10 cleansers and 23% of the facial care packages, and there are great potential replacement opportunities. Among them, the domestic cleansing positioning is cost-effective, the product strength is equal to Kerun, and the new channel operation is significantly ahead of Japan, which is expected to replace the mid-range Japanese cleansing market. The segmentation of facial care suits is dominated by foreign brands, positioning the overall high-end, and high-end products and high-end brands of national cosmetics are expected to be partially undertaken; At the same time, the leading domestic products in the expansion stage of large single products form a set of "stocking goods" with star single products, which greatly increases the unit price of customers and also has certain development opportunities.
▍The attention of Japanese raw materials has increased, catalyzing the further upgrading of the national cosmetics industry chain.
Japanese raw material manufacturers have good overall color, smell and quality, mainly core skeleton raw materials and monomer active ingredients, and are leading the world in some segments; Local raw material manufacturers cover more comprehensively and achieve breakthroughs in Japanese in individual segments. With the increasing attention paid to cosmetics raw materials after the nuclear water pollution incident, the upstream industrial chains such as R&D and raw materials are enriched in China, and the cosmetics supply chain in China is gradually recognized internationally. The incident will further promote the perfection and upgrading of the national cosmetics industrial chain.
▍Risk factors:
There is a high degree of uncertainty about the impact and duration of the nuclear pollution water discharge event; Skin care products are typical optional consumer goods, if residents’ consumption willingness and confidence are weak or have a negative impact on companies in the industry; If the regulatory policy changes beyond expectations, it may lead to a corresponding slowdown in the growth rate of industries and enterprises; The risk that the product strength and brand strength of local brands are not improved as expected; The risk of concentrated sales of e-commerce platform; The risk of changes in marketing channels; Risks of technology research and development.
▍Investment strategy: pay attention to the replacement opportunities of Japanese makeup in combination with the main line of growth.
We believe that the market underestimated the impact of the Japanese nuclear pollution incident on the competition pattern of China’s beauty industry. (1) According to the sea discharge plan announced by the Japanese government, the nuclear polluted water will be discharged into the sea for at least 30 years, with strong persistence and repetitiveness. Every time the sea discharge is started every year, it may cause a new round of concern, and events such as pollution caused by sea discharge may cause staged public opinion. ② The incident caused a great impact on the brand, products, channels and marketing dimensions of Japanese cosmetics. Based on the leading operation precision of new domestic channels and the continuous breakthrough of product strength, we believe that Chinese cosmetics is expected to make up for its position quickly and continue to expand its market share in the medium and long term. (3) Japanese cosmetics account for a relatively high proportion in sunscreen, cleansing and suits, and the price band is positioned at the high end, so the above areas have great substitution opportunities. Pay attention to the sunscreen track with large space for daily makeup replacement and strong growth potential, and the skin care track with large space for daily makeup replacement; Pay attention to the existence of upstream raw material industry chain that constantly breaks through and upgrades.