Author | Cao Shuangtao
Editor | Yang Bocheng
Title map | Wen Xin yi ge
"Huawei’s most leading, innovative and subversive products are coming! This is an epoch-making product that others think of but can’t do. After five years of persistence and investment, we have turned science fiction into reality. " Yu Chengdong refers to this product or Huawei’s upcoming release of the world’s first three-fold screen mass-produced mobile phone-Mate XT Extraordinary Master.
Source: Weibo, Yu Chengdong
According to the official warm-up video, the back panel design of Mate XT extraordinary master mobile phone is close to that of Mate 60 RS extraordinary master. The whole module is black, surrounded by a metallic decorative frame, and a polygonal camera module is placed behind it. The back shell of the fuselage is made of plain leather, and a vertical metallic "HUAWEI ULTIMATE DESIGN" logo can be seen below the camera module.
Source: Huawei official
The mass production of the extraordinary masters of Mate XT has triggered domestic mobile phone manufacturers to follow suit. Known as the "King of Africa", Chuanyin is the first Huawei to release PHANTOM ULTIMATE 2, a three-fold screen mobile phone, but this model is still a prototype. There is no public statement about when to realize global mass production.
Zhao Ming, CEO of Glory, also pointed out that Glory has a layout in technologies such as 30% discount and scroll. Although the technology is ready, the specific release time depends on the market reaction. From the supply chain, Xiaomi is developing a 30% discount mobile phone, which is expected to appear in the form of a physical model or prototype at the Mobile World Congress in February 2025.
Different from the development of large folding screen and small folding screen to multi-folding screen in China, Samsung is developing a rollable mobile phone. Korean media Business Post reported that Samsung recently applied for a patent for a rollable display for smart devices.
According to foreign media Patently Apple, Samsung applied for the patent of electronic device with rollable display in Europe, with the patent number of 20240281093. The rollable display can be simply understood as a common "rolling gate" in life. Some screens are rolled inward for storage, and larger screens are pulled out when necessary.
Compared with folding screen displays, rollable displays need higher-end technical support. Overseas media predict that commercial rollable mobile phones may not appear until after 2027 due to the high technical difficulty of rollable phones.
And considering that Samsung Galaxy Z Fold has spent 11 years from development to listing, it means that Samsung’s rollable mobile phone may have a longer time to market.
Although compared with the rollable mobile phone, the technical difficulty of the three-fold screen mobile phone is reduced and the commercialization may be higher. However, due to the disadvantages of price, after-sales price, durability, versatility, and scenes, it is still open to question whether the three-fold screen mobile phone can achieve substantial growth in the short term.
Since June 2018, Rouyu Technology has taken the lead in Huawei and Samsung, taking the lead in releasing the world’s first foldable flexible screen mobile phone FlexPai. In the following years, in addition to Apple, major mobile phone manufacturers have released related folding screen models, and the shipments of larger screen, lighter and thinner folding screen mobile phones have been increasing.
Source: Based on public information collation
Counterpoint data shows that in 2024, Q2 global folding screen mobile phone shipments increased by 48% year-on-year, and Latin America’s growth rate reached 450% due to its relatively low base. Glory Magic V2 replaced Samsung to win the title of folding screen mobile phone in Western Europe in this quarter, relying on a thinner body.
Under the high growth, it is still difficult to hide several realities of the folding screen mobile phone market: First, the problem of folding screen hinge crease still exists. On the JD.COM platform, many manufacturers’ folding screen mobile phones have bad reviews related to hinges; Second, the high maintenance cost, Huawei Pocket2 to replace the new screen price of about 3000 yuan. If the original old parts can be recovered for free, the cost will be more than 2000 yuan, which is enough for consumers to buy brand-new machines.
Source: JD.COM
Third, the development path of consumer electronic products is probably as follows: manufacturers’ shipments increase → dilute manufacturers’ R&D costs and after-sales costs and supply chain manufacturers’ costs → lower prices to drive shipments increase → continue to dilute costs, and the yield rate continues to increase → continue to drive sales. The traditional large bar mobile phone has grown up according to this path.
If the folding screen mobile phone wants to realize this path, it still faces a lot of resistance. Huang Tao, vice president of vivo products, said that overcoming various technical problems requires manufacturers and suppliers to constantly promote ripening. Under the current situation that the total amount is not large enough, the overall difficulty of promoting things is relatively large.
Based on this, it is difficult for high-priced folding screens to enter the mainstream mass market and remain a niche market in the short term.
Trend Force Jibang Consulting data shows that in 2023, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones was 15.9 million, accounting for about 1.4% of the total smartphone market. It will grow to 17.7 million in 2024, but the proportion will only increase by 1.5%.
If the above problems are put on a three-fold screen mobile phone, the problems may be more prominent. On the one hand, in order to ensure the user experience, the three-folding screen mobile phone pursues thinness more than the big folding screen and the small folding screen.
For example, when the prototype of a three-fold mobile phone is folded, the thickness of the whole machine is 11mm, which is almost close to the thickness limit of a three-fold screen mobile phone in terms of the thickness of Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6, Huawei Mate X5 and Glory Magic V3.
In order to achieve thinness and thinness, three folding screens need to use flexible OLED screens and hinges with longer life at the same time, and demand higher yield, cost and income of supply chain manufacturers.
It is reported that Phantom Ultimate 2 prototype can be folded zigzag through two sets of hinges. Officials say that its rotating shaft can withstand up to 300,000 folds and has a high strength of 2100MPa. Huawei’s 30% mobile phone consists of a double hinge structure folded inside and outside, which requires high flexibility, durability and hinge strength of the display.
At present, the core problem of hinges is the low yield. According to the relevant research report of Shanxi Securities, the median yield of hinges in the industry is about 50%-60%, which is the biggest threshold for the assembly of folding screen panels. It is bound to be more difficult to use the three-fold mobile phone panel with double hinge structure.
In addition to the hinge problem, the chip is also a big problem. These two problems or the supply chain still have shortcomings.
Citic Construction’s related research report mentioned that the triple-folding model is a brand-new folding form, which still poses great challenges to the supply chain. If the supply chain delivery capacity cannot meet the demand, the shipment of Huawei’s triple-folding model may be less than expected.
The yield of the upstream supply chain is low and the technology is immature. Huawei needs to ensure the normal profits of dealers. The supply chain estimates that the price of Huawei’s three-fold screen may be as high as 20,000 yuan.
If you refer to the screen maintenance cost of Pocket2, the maintenance cost of the three-fold screen will only be higher. In other words, the purchase cost is superimposed on the possible maintenance cost, and the use cost of Mate XT extraordinary master is at least 20,000 yuan.
However, whether it was the hot sale of Mate60 in the market last year, the out-of-stock caused dealers and scalpers to eat, or the sales volume of Nova Flip exceeded 45,000 units in 72 hours, which increased by 85% year-on-year.
Whether the shipment of Mate X5 series is more than 4.5 times higher than that of X3, or the upcoming Mate XT Extraordinary Master takes the world’s first mass-produced three-fold screen mobile phone as a selling point, scalpers are speculating the Mate XT Extraordinary Master at a sky-high price.
On salted fish, the price of Mate XT has reached 50,000-60,000, and the price given by some sellers is as high as 100,000, and the premium rate is close to 5 times.
?Source: Xianyu APP
The extraordinary master of Mate XT, who is positioned in the ultra-high-end business market, is responsible for Huawei’s impact on the higher end. On the one hand, Huawei’s existing production capacity cannot achieve large-scale global supply, and more high-end products need to be launched to continuously improve revenue and profits; On the other hand, some dealers revealed that Huawei’s TOC business has changed from selling goods to operating customers, which means that Huawei wants to get rid of the shackles of the original stores and change from sitting in a business to a merchant. It also means that Huawei’s integrated business is also fully adjusted to high-end.
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It is undeniable that the global mass production of Huawei MateXT three-fold screen mobile phone shows the comprehensive technical strength of Huawei and supply chain manufacturers.
According to market rumors, the panel supplier of Huawei’s three folding screens is BOE. As early as 2022, BOE has announced the successful development of F-OLED flexible N-shaped folding display technology, which can realize internal and external folding simultaneously. The water-drop folding life of inward folding R3 is 200,000 times, and that of outward folding R5 is 100,000 times.
If BOE officially supplies Huawei, the expected service life will be further improved, which means that the comprehensive technical strength of domestic panel manufacturers may be able to compete with SDC, the originator of folding screen panels.
It is still open to question whether the extraordinary master MateXT can provoke Huawei’s high-end tasks. In addition to the supply chain problem, Li Nan, president of Meizu, publicly criticized Huawei’s three-fold screen for being 10mm thick, which was not practical. And the design and technology began to pay attention to X grid instead of talking about cost performance. This is a very small number of middle-aged men who are not poor in money and have serious and advanced fun. The implication is that there are too few consumers who are willing to pay for Huawei’s Mate XT of more than 20,000 yuan.
Source: Weibo
In addition, it is urgent to answer several key questions to the market after the three-folding-screen mobile phone is really listed in a large area, which is expected to drive the manufacturers to increase their shipments and the relevant supply chain manufacturers to benefit. That is: compared with the existing consumer electronics, what is the core advantage of triple folding? Or what kind of differentiated experience can a three-fold mobile phone with a price of more than 20,000 yuan bring to consumers?
Manufacturers focus on two forms of triple-fold exposure. First, it is unfolded from the triple-fold used by Yu Chengdong in the engine room and is close to the size of a tablet computer. The message list is displayed on the left side of the screen, and other split-screen browsing contents seem to be displayed on the middle and right side of the screen. After the real launch, there may be a new design and planning in the split-screen operation, and the use scenarios of the overall equipment are expected to be more than the existing folding screen equipment.
The other is the "tent mode" under the expansion of Phantom Ultimate 2, where users can operate different pages by touching the pen. Although the overall operation is similar to that of a tablet computer, the other screen is idle.
Source: Voice official
Zhang Nan (pseudonym), a consumer from Fuyang, Anhui Province, told DoNews that he personally thought that the three-fold screen was a little tasteless, and compared with the traditional straight mobile phone, it had no advantages in maintenance cost, portability and price. Compared with tablet, the game screen is not as big as tablet, and the whole operation experience is not as good as tablet.
Compared with a business office computer, it is more expensive for me and my colleagues to get used to Apple or Microsoft’s operating system than a high-profile business office computer. Compared with the big folding screen, I don’t need it for my daily business and business socialization. If you simply meet the entertainment needs and pursue a big screen experience, why not buy a large-size TV or projector directly?
The same feeling as Zhang Nan is also Hu Yang (a pseudonym) who sells a mobile phone in Zhoukou, Henan Province. Hu Yang said that many customers he comes into contact with every day pay more attention to the configuration of mobile phones and the problem of jamming, and pay limited attention to the screen. And the core functions of consumers using mobile phones are games, payment, short videos and social interaction, and some consumers will make adjustments according to their occupation and personal habits. At present, the function of smart phones is not insufficient, but a serious surplus.
As Hu Yang said, since 2024, in addition to Apple, major mobile phone manufacturers have launched AI mobile phones. And in order to meet the needs of policy supervision, domestic mobile phones seek cooperation from overseas big models, and overseas mobile phone manufacturers seek cooperation from domestic big model manufacturers.
However, Canalys reports that consumers who pay attention to AI mobile phones can be divided into four categories: technology enthusiasts, value-maximizers, pragmatists and skeptics.
Among them, pragmatists account for the largest proportion of 67.9%. At present, the real AI mobile phone buyers on the market are technology enthusiasts. It is estimated that the market will wait until 2025 or 2026, and those who pursue value maximization and pragmatists will pay for AI mobile phones, and the relevant supply chains will also target this group in advance.
Based on this, AI mobile phones currently have limited contribution to manufacturers’ shipments. According to Canalys data, global smartphone shipments in Q2 in 2024 only increased by 5% year-on-year, and most of them were contributed by markets in Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America. If manufacturers continue to lower the price of AI mobile phones in order to hedge the research and development costs of AI big models, this means that it is difficult for three-fold screen mobile phones to sell AI.
In addition, with the consumer market paying more and more attention to the comprehensive cost performance, it is also difficult for the extraordinary masters of Mate XT to replicate the sales myths of Mate60, Nova Flip and Mate X5. Although the shortage of Mate60 provided the basis for the hot sales in the early stage of Pura 70, on the day of Pura 70 sales, the real-time search popularity of Meituan flash purchase directly increased by over 3600%. Cattle is a premium of 2000 yuan, and some popular colors are not available from stock.
However, if Pura 70 is put into a mobile phone with the same price, its overall cost-effective advantage is slightly insufficient compared with competing products. Based on this, the popularity of Pura 70 did not last long. Since July, its price has been reduced several times. With the increasing number of three-fold screen mobile phones sold by manufacturers in the future, what are the differentiated selling points that can be recognized by consumers? This is worth pondering by all manufacturers.
At present, mobile phone manufacturers are constantly rolling up big folds, small folds and triple folds, but traditional straight mobile phones still face many practical challenges if they want to grow more.
First, the problem of battery life. Zhang Wei (a pseudonym), a freight driver who has been engaged for many years, told us that the navigation function needs to be turned on during the whole process of the truck driver’s sports car, which requires high battery life of the mobile phone. In recent years, although many manufacturers of flagship machine have been purchased, the overall endurance is not good. After three or four hours of navigation, the power will soon drop from 80% to 20%. To make matters worse, in the hot summer, smartphones are not only slow, but sometimes they can’t be charged. Not only Android, but also the difficulty of low-temperature apples in winter has been criticized by many Apple users.
The second is the stuck problem of traditional straight board machine. According to the data of China Information and Communication Research Institute, in July this year, Apple’s market share in China has fallen to single-digit level, and the comprehensive proportion of Android mobile phone manufacturers has reached 90%.
However, Rong Qiang (a pseudonym), a salesman from an Apple store in Fuyang, Anhui Province, told us that many of the customers they come into daily contact with are because the Apple operating system is smoother than Android phones and is not stuck. Many old Apple users are not used to the Android operating system, or after using Android phones for a period of time, they continue to buy Apple. Even old Apple users who are highly concerned about cost performance will ask if there is an Apple II mobile phone in the store.
As Rong Qiang said, whether the black cat complaint involves the stuck Android phone, or the bad reviews of many manufacturers on the JD.COM platform can always see the stuck problem, or the second Apple phone accounts for a relatively large proportion, all of which explain the stuck problem or the problems that need to be solved and optimized constantly at present.
Source: Black Cat Complaint
Source: Black Cat Complaint
The third is the price issue that consumers are quite concerned about. With the increasingly fierce price war between JD.COM and Tmall, it is continuously impacting the price system of mobile phone manufacturers. Take this year’s 618 as an example. Starting from 0: 00 on May 20th, JD.COM successively removed the popular products of Redmi Turbo3 and K series for nearly five hours. In addition, several categories of mobile phone brands, such as OPPO, vivo, iQOO, Yijia and Glory, were also dropped by JD.COM.
The cause of the incident is that JD.COM and Tmall adopted the same price strategy. However, in order to expand the market share of 3C, Tmall added 100 yuan to the 88VIP discount on the basis of the original discount. JD.COM is a price-chasing Tmall, and under the business keys emphasized by Liu Qiangdong, such as improving efficiency, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and focusing on pragmatism, mobile phone manufacturers are required to bear the subsidy price. Under the game between the two sides, the manufacturer’s model will be temporarily removed.
However, consumers will not pay attention to the tripartite game between JD.COM, Tmall and the brand, and the price reduction will still cause a lot of consumers’ dissatisfaction with backstab. On the black cat complaint platform, there are more than 4,000 complaints about the price reduction of mobile phones, covering multiple mobile phone brands. In other words, how to achieve a balance among channels, profits and consumer interests protection is one of the problems faced by brands.
?Source: Black Cat Complaint
Not only in the domestic market, India is regarded as one of the important growth markets overseas. Although the high temperature and rising prices have caused the demand in the Indian mobile phone market to stagnate, Counterpoint data shows that in the first half of 2024, India’s mobile phone shipments increased by 7.2% year-on-year to 69 million.
Although the average selling price has risen, consumer demand has continued to stagnate, but from January to June 2024, India’s smartphone shipments still reached an annual growth rate. Small-scale long-tail brands such as iQOO, Motorola, Nothing, and Poco, an independent brand of Xiaomi, have become the main kinetic energy to push up India’s annual growth rate for four consecutive quarters.
But whether India violated some visa regulations with Vivo and claimed to steal $13 billion from India. Either India has previously frozen Xiaomi’s assets of more than 600 million US dollars, or the Indian government’s procurement of GPU only allows domestic registered operators to bid, all of which indicate that domestic mobile phone manufacturers still need to break through many obstacles if they want to truly survive, gain a foothold and achieve greater growth in India.
There is nothing wrong with manufacturers’ rolling technology, and the process of rolling each other can also lower product prices and enhance domestic technical strength. However, if manufacturers want to rely on the three-fold screen to drive the sales explosion, there may be many problems to be solved.